The Extreme Weather in California during the Winter of 1852-1853

Keywords: Historical climatology, California, atmospheric rivers, Little Ice Age
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 09:40 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 11:00 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 48

Abstract

Reconstructing and analyzing pre-modern historical weather evens from documentary data are vital to understand the range of weather extremes and worst-case scenarios. This study utilizes sub-daily historical data from California to reconstruct the storms during the 1852-1853 winter, and it also utilizes tree-ring standardized precipitation index (SPI) reconstructions, snow model simulations, and reanalysis data. Data come from 11 instrumental stations, 130 different newspaper articles, several personal diaries, ship logs, and a hydrograph. All the data were taken from original primary sources at historical repositories and transcribed into digital files. Plots of bar graphs, qualitative analyses of storm and precipitation descriptions, and rain day counts were conducted for the November 1852-April 1853 period with focus on the big atmospheric river events from December 1852-January 1853. Results suggest that the storms of 1852-1853 in California were very abnormally severe, with high intensity atmospheric rivers raising river levels in central California almost as high as in 1862 and likely greater than for 1997-1998. The historical weather data broadly agree with tree-ring reconstructions on positive precipitation anomalies and late Little Ice Age climate controls but show some differences concerning spatial variability and intensity. Snow model simulations also are mostly positive in anomaly sign and strongly suggest the high likelihood of prominent rain-on-snow events. These weather results provide a strong quantitative assessment on winter severity and offer very prominent weather impact implications on gold mining activity as well as early settlement in California.