Understanding Internal Variability of Arctic Freshwater Content through Spatial Fingerprinting Technique

Keywords: Arctic freshwater content, sea ice decline, internal variability, spatial patterns
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 09:40 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 11:00 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 48

Abstract

The liquid freshwater content of the Arctic Ocean has dramatically increased over the last few decades due to varying increases within its primary sources. While Arctic liquid freshwater content is inherently linked to wind-driven stresses on the ocean surface, the sources of potential liquid freshwater from a declining sea ice cover, increased net-precipitation, and increased river runoff into the Arctic Ocean are all at least partially forced by anthropogenic-driven warming. The complexity surrounding future liquid freshwater content is thus uncertain, especially when considering the spatial manifestation of natural and forced signals. Using a spatial analysis of a fully coupled climate model with historical radiative forcing, we quantify the internal and forced patterns of liquid freshwater content that can result in significant change within the Arctic Ocean freshwater balance, with a focus on the contribution from sea ice decline. By focusing on the spatial differences between the observed climatological and model ensemble mean patterns, we are able to assess regional scale processes influential in present and future freshwater content within the Arctic Ocean.