The impact of COVID-19 on Supercommute in the Bay Area

Keywords: supercommute, COVID-19, mobility disadvantaged, income inequality, regional disparity
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Saturday
Session Start / End Time: 2/26/2022 08:00 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/26/2022 09:20 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 39

Abstract

Anecdotal evidence has long suggested that the restrictive housing supply and high housing cost in San Francisco Metro might force households to migrate out of the Bay Area and endure long commutes from the Central Valley. The spread of COVID-19 to California in early 2020 led to a series of policies that curbed the spread of the disease but reduced economic activity and travel. We found that the pandemic aggravates the difference in commuting between mobility advantaged and disadvantaged groups.

Supercommute is defined as commutes longer than 50 miles or 90 minutes one-way. During the pandemic, while supercommuting decreased everywhere, high volumes persisted in many areas with the highest pre-pandemic volume. This research answers the following questions: 1) How do traffic patterns change before and after COVID-19? Does the drop rate vary by area? by the time of the day, and by demographics? We run a panel regression using travel-related variables from StreetLight and COVID-related variables from the governmental database.

Although the regional share of supercommute remains constant before and after COVID-19 started, the spatial distribution of these trips is uneven. Most of Central Valley counties remain high share (5-10%) of supercommute, while most of the Bay Area counties share only less than 2% of supercommute. Our results provide evidence to a version of Bay Area to Central Valley linkage, contrasting the control of mobility between workers in high-wage industries that would have enabled remote working and workers who cannot afford to stop commuting the long distance.