Effects of Temporal Framing and Hazard Experience on Receptivity to Hurricane Risk Messages: Lessons from a Survey of Gulf Coast Residents

Keywords: climate change, risk communication, hurricanes
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Monday
Session Start / End Time: 2/28/2022 02:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/28/2022 03:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 14

Abstract

As knowledge in the scientific community increases regarding how anthropogenic CO2 loading of the atmosphere will impact future hurricane activity, the need for effective and accurate communication of hurricane risk in coastal communities – specifically to non-scientific stakeholders – also increases. To better inform hurricane risk communication, this study employs a survey of Gulf Coast residents immediately following the active 2017 hurricane season to consider how message framing (as established by communicator word choice) and stakeholders’ experience may affect receptivity to hurricane hazard information. Specifically, it tests how different temporal framings (paleo versus future projections) and causal framings (‘climate change’ versus ‘ocean and atmospheric change’) of changes in intense hurricane (> category 3) activity interact with recent hurricane experience, climate change beliefs, and other individual differences to shape perceptions of hurricane risk and changes in hurricane frequency. The results suggest that temporal framing of hurricane risk messages matters, with forward-looking framings (future projections) causing increased perceptions of risk and storm frequency. Recent hurricane experience is found to be associated with higher post-message risk perceptions (but not with expectations of more frequent storms); prior beliefs about climate change also are shown to have significant effects on post-treatment risk perceptions and beliefs about frequency trends. Communicators should consider these factors when translating scientific hurricane risk information to the public.