Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European Covid-19 trajectories
Topics: Health and Medical
, Geographic Information Science and Systems
, Applied Geography
Keywords: Covid-19; effectiveness; government intervention; vaccine; variants
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Saturday
Session Start / End Time: 2/26/2022 09:40 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/26/2022 11:00 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 27
Authors:
Yong Ge, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS
Wenbin Zhang, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS
Xilin Wu, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS
Haiyan Liu, Marine Data Center, South Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)
Jianghao Wang, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS
Yongze Song, School of Design and the Built Environment, Curtin University
Mengxiao Liu, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS
Wei Yan, Respiratory medicine department, Peking university third hospital
Corrine W Ruktanonchai, Population Health Sciences, Virginia Tech
Eimear Cleary, WorldPop, School of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton
Abstract
Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are key approaches to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. The fraction of the susceptible population in the contacts of infection can be decreased by vaccination in a less costly and disruptive way compared with NPIs such as social distancing and face masks, and countries with high levels of vaccination are generally rolling back NPIs. However, the respective real-world effectiveness of NPIs and vaccination on mitigating Covid-19 during this process remains uncertain. Here we show that NPIs were still considerably complementary or even synergistic to vaccination in the effort to end the Covid-19 pandemic before reaching herd immunity. We found that the synergistic effect of NPIs and vaccination was 46.9% in September 2021. While the effectiveness of NPIs decreased with vaccination progress as the vaccinated population is meaninglessly restricted by NPIs. The amount of effectiveness that NPIs had per se, to prevent Covid-19 transmission, has declined about 23.3% since vaccination, where the relaxation of NPIs promoted the process from May 2021. Our results demonstrate that the relaxation of NPIs should not only consider the vaccination rate, but also the contemporary popular variants, especially the effect of the used vaccines against the corresponding variants.
Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European Covid-19 trajectories
Category
Virtual Paper Abstract
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