State-and-Transition Simulation Models to assess Watershed Habitat and Habitat Connectivity Under Future Land Use and Climate and Fire Regime Scenarios

Keywords: Landscape, LULC, Spatial Modeling,
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Tuesday
Session Start / End Time: 3/1/2022 09:40 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 3/1/2022 11:00 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 20

Abstract

Coupling models of climate change and disturbance regime change with land use change and zoning policies is becoming critical as we face increased uncertainty about landscape responses to the dynamics between these drivers. Providing alternative future scenarios has the potential to provide decision makers and managers with the tools to explore how zoning and land use policy decisions may affect habitat and habitat connectivity under uncertain futures. Here we present a State-and-Transition Simulation Model (STSM) approach to look at the North Tule River Watershed in the Sierra Nevada Foothills of California. The North Tule River Watershed supports extensive tracts of oak woodland and savanna habitat, much of which is still held in relatively large privately owned properties (i.e. ranch lands) and public lands (National Forests). We use projected climate change scenarios and fire regime change scenarios for the state of California coupled with various zoning and land use policies to construct spatiotemporal models to demonstrate how habitat and habitat connectivity will be affected 50 and 100 years into the future. The results suggest that all three drivers have significant impacts on habitat and habitat connectivity and that they have the potential to interact synergistically or antagonistically either exasperating or mediating habitat loss and/or fragmentation.