Climate Change in Urban Lagos - An existential scenario for the urban poor

Keywords: Climate Change, Urban lagos, Flooding, Geo-AI, Urban Poor, Climate Justice
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Tuesday
Session Start / End Time: 3/1/2022 05:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 3/1/2022 06:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 18

Abstract

Urban environments are complex systems and when coupled with climate systems become a huge intertwined nexus of systems and processes. they are dynamic, evolving to fit the teeming populace. Moreover, urban environments are linked to dense populations which makes them more vulnerable to climate change hazards like floods, heat waves or droughts (Romero Lankao and Qin 2011, 144). Lagos, Nigeria is located on the Atlantic coast of West Africa and is projected to be sinking at a faster pace than anticipated. The deluge of flood events that have constantly ravaged the coastal city and made its over 18 million inhabitants vulnerable while putting public infrastructures at risk has remained largely unchecked. Questions such as: How many persons live in Lagos, Rate of drainage sedimentation? Drain-land topographic ratio? depth of the Lagoon? Its retention capacity? Discharge rate? What about the flood issues? number and economic cost of vulnerable infrastructure. These questions and many more drive decision making and while it can be argued that data would not stop flooding or manage the level of the lagoon, data has been known to influence planning, aid decision-makers and reduce vulnerabilities.
This research critically assesses the flood dynamics of Lagos State in light of the changing climate employing High-resolution Imagery, Elevation data from UAVs, coupled Hydrologic models, historical and future climate scenario models, gridded population estimates as well as Machine learning and Artificial Intelligence. The output will provide a scientific blueprint to mitigating a climate disaster especially among the highly vulnerable urban poor.