Drought and the Root Causes of Migration: Socioeconomic Characteristics and Agricultural Landscapes of Communities Affected by a Changing Midsummer Drought in Guatemala
Topics: Immigration/Transnationalism
, Hazards and Vulnerability
, Latin America
Keywords: Migration, Climate Variability, Climate Change, Drought, Agriculture, Guatemala.
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Friday
Session Start / End Time: 2/25/2022 02:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/25/2022 03:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 45
Authors:
Diego Pons, Colorado State University
Zain Alabweh, Columbia University
Susana Adamo, Columbia University
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Abstract
Apprehension of Guatemalans at the U.S.-Mexican border reached one of its highest in recent years. The narrative on the causes behind this upward trend of outmigration has been attributed to climate change, particularly the extension of the midsummer drought. In this study we used a Synthetic Household Population to attribute a set of sociodemographic characteristics to those populations in areas of Guatemala that have experienced a statistically significant change in the duration of the midsummer drought. This allowed us to characterize the livelihoods of these populations in Guatemala and to derive the level of vulnerability of these communities to this climate hazard. In addition, we characterized the land use within the areas exposed to the extended mid-summer drought to begin to assess the relationship between subsistence agriculture and the potential impact of the midsummer drought duration to the agricultural livelihoods of these communities. The drilled-down livelihood survey information represented as a Synthetic Population at household and person-level data was compared to the areas in Guatemala that have experienced a statistically significant extended midsummer drought for the last 40 years. This georeferenced data set allowed us to physically allocate a particular set of households to a particular climate hazard. Overall, the intersection between exposure, climate hazard (determined by the areas experiencing an extended midsummer drought), and the vulnerability (sociodemographic and crop data) allowed us to assess the risk of these communities associated to an extension of the midsummer drought, which in turn can inform their association to coping mechanisms, including migration.
Drought and the Root Causes of Migration: Socioeconomic Characteristics and Agricultural Landscapes of Communities Affected by a Changing Midsummer Drought in Guatemala
Category
Virtual Paper Abstract
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