Urbanization without growth? New evidence from Nigeria between 2000 and 2015

Keywords: Urbanization, Developing country, Nigeria, Economic growth, spatiotemporal modelling
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Monday
Session Start / End Time: 2/28/2022 09:40 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/28/2022 11:00 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 64

Abstract

The world is becoming more and more urbanized especially in developing countries. The relationship between economic growth and the urbanization process is a popular research topic. The evidence that the increase of the mega-cities and rapid urbanization process in less developed countries in Latin America and Africa, which leads scholars to believe that the economic development level and urbanization are not always correlated. In this study, we developed a spatiotemporal model based on the historic dataset in Nigeria, which includes time series urban land cover, gross domestic product(GDP), and population from 2000 to 2015. The results show both GDP and urban population growth rate have a positive correlation with urban land expansion while the urban population is a domain driver for urban expansion. In addition, this relationship is more significant in high-income areas than low-income areas. In recent years, the impact of GDP on urban land change is increasing rapidly and exceeded the impact of urban population growth. The study also revealed the spatial relationship of urban land expansion and socio-economic change.