Integrating transportation–land-use interaction in large-scale urban growth modeling: A conceptual framework

Keywords: Urban; urban growth; land change, land change modeling, urban growth modeling, transportation, modeling, systematic review
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 05:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 06:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 59

Abstract

With rapid urbanization and economic development leading to massive changes in local, regional, and global transportation networks, it is crucial to incorporate the reciprocal interaction between the proposed transportation infrastructure development projects and urban land expansion in modeling of urban land change. Neglecting these interactions in urban land change models can lead to misleading conclusions regarding the socioeconomic and biophysical impacts of future urban land expansion. The question we pose in this study is whether existing urban land change models are adequately developed to represent these interactions between urban land change and road networks. To this end, we performed a systematic review to identify how existing urban land change modeling studies included transportation. Less than one-fifth of the eligible studies incorporated transportation components, and more than half of these studies used simple distance-based transportation variables as part of their models. Only a few studies examined the bidirectional relationship between transportation and land use. Several of these studies used scenario-based approaches for urban growth modeling; however, none of these studies considered any large-scale infrastructure development projects in any of these scenarios. Based on the findings, here we propose a new conceptual framework to capture the interaction between land-use change and transportation development. We proposed integrating a bidirectional feedback loop between transportation and land use and integrated the infrastructure development projects in forecasting the urban land amount statistically and spatially. The output from this proposed framework will capture modified accessibility resulting from transportation development and influence future land-use change and vice versa.