The Role of Military Units in the Mass Killings of 1965-66 in East Java, Indonesia: Spatial Analysis

Keywords: Asia, Indonesia, Political Geography, Historical Geography, Violence, Genocide, Military, Human Rights, 1965, Communist Party, Population Geography, GWR, Geographically Weighted Regression
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Monday
Session Start / End Time: 2/28/2022 08:00 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/28/2022 09:20 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 48

Abstract

The role of the Indonesian Army in the mass killings of 1965-66 is well-established. The aim of this paper is to examine variations in one-time population changes associated with the violence of 1965-66 and the association between these variations and proximity to military installations in the Indonesian province of East Java. In order to do so, we first use sub-district-level data from Indonesian population censuses from before and after the violence to estimate one-time drops or increases in population associated with the violence. Next, we use regression methods, including geographically weighted regression, to examine whether there is a systematic relationship between the proximity of sub-districts to the local district army headquarters and the estimate of the one-time change in population, attributable to the violence of 1965-66, in the sub-districts. The analysis reveals that there is such a relationship across all the sub-districts in the province --- in many locations, greater proximity to the military headquarters is associated with greater population loss. In addition, the strength of this relationship varies from location to location, suggesting that, to the extent that military units were involved in the violence, the degree of their involvement may have varied across the province. Finally, we interpret the specific findings of our analysis in the context of the large and rich anecdotal literature, based on eyewitness accounts and local knowledge of the killings, that has been emerging from Indonesia for the past two decades. Our findings reveal many points of alignment with this literature.