High Wave Events on the Great Lakes in Relation to El Niño-Southern Oscillation Influences on Mid-Latitude Cyclones

Keywords: Great Lakes, ENSO, climate change, mid-latitude cyclones, high waves
Session Type: Virtual Guided Poster Abstract
Day: Saturday
Session Start / End Time: 2/26/2022 05:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/26/2022 06:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 63

Abstract

Winds from winter mid-latitude cyclone (MLC) storm systems often drive high waves into the shorelines of the Great Lakes, sometimes resulting in significant damage. My study examines the frequency of winter extreme wave events at Duluth, MN, Chicago, IL, and Buffalo, NY in relation to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases. I use data from the US Army Corps of Engineers Wave Information Study (WIS) wave hindcast model to identify the most extreme wave events at a point near to each city’s central shoreline. I then associate individual events with an MLC track passing nearby around the date of the event and categorize both the wave event and cyclone track according to ENSO level (El Niño, La Niña, Neutral) in that winter.

The most extreme wave events at Duluth and Chicago show variability that is related to expected MLC sensitivity to ENSO. At Buffalo, however, the results show a much stronger seasonal relationship regardless of ENSO phase.

These findings suggest that winter ENSO conditions could be taken into consideration to judge the probability of high wave events happening at certain locations on the Great Lakes. If future climate conditions result in more frequent or stronger El Niño events, the results of this study may be used to spark wider conversation and research about the effects this might have on high wave events around the Great Lakes.