Crop Price Variability, Environmental Change and Intra-Regional Migration in Africa
Topics: Migration
, Environment
, Africa
Keywords: migration, climate change, crop price, Africa
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Friday
Session Start / End Time: 2/25/2022 03:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/25/2022 05:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 46
Authors:
Fabien Cottier, Columbia University
Wolfram Schlenker, Columbia University
Elisabeth Ilboudo Nébié, Arizona State University
Richard Seager, Columbia University
Sonali McDermid, New York University
Michael J. Puma, Columbia University
Weston Anderson, Columbia University
Alex de Sherbinin, Columbia University
Andrew Reid Bell, Boston University
,
Abstract
Do global crop price variability and climate shocks affect intra-regional migration in Africa ? Historically, the emergence of migration networks within West Africa, as well as elsewhere on the African continent, has been associated with the extension of the cultivation of crops, and in particular of cash crops. In this paper, we leverage exogenous variations in global crop prices, averaged by the production quantities of a country in the pre-period to obtain country-specific measures of exposure to price shocks, as well as precipitation and temperature averaged over the crop growing area and season. We link those exogenous shocks to migration patterns within Africa, using migration data derived from United Nations foreign-born population tables. Our findings indicate that out-migration decreases as global crop prices increase, especially for cash crops, but not for the remaining crops that are mainly grown for the own consumption of farmers. Higher crop prices of cash crops imply higher revenues and profits of farmers and possibly further employment opportunities, improving local conditions and thereby reducing the desire to migrate. At the same time, higher temperatures, which are associated with increased crop failures, non-linearly increase out-migration at origin, while linearly decreasing in-migration at destination. Our results are significant for migration flows within West Africa, where countries share a similar colonial history and are part of a common economic zone, but not significant for remaining countries.
Separately, we will also present the results of a recent project aiming at predicting future migration flows in Africa using Bayesian hierarchical modeling.
Crop Price Variability, Environmental Change and Intra-Regional Migration in Africa
Category
Virtual Paper Abstract
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