Evaluating shared model understanding in the climate-migration space
Topics: Migration
, Quantitative Methods
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Keywords: modeling, adaptation, knowledge brokering, understanding, evaluation
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Friday
Session Start / End Time: 2/25/2022 03:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/25/2022 05:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 46
Authors:
Andrew Reid Bell, Boston University
Sonali McDermid, New York University
Alex de Sherbinin, Columbia University
Fabien Cottier, Columbia University
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Abstract
Appropriate use of models to inform decision-making requires that model outputs be understood within the context of model assumptions. However, modeling of migration as the joint product of environmental, socio-economic, and political drivers requires both i) integration of theory from across many disciplines in order to develop a coherent conceptual underpinning, and ii) additional layers of assumptions to operationalize this conceptual framework. It is not trivial to bring non-modeling stakeholders up to a shared level of understanding of model processes. Gaps in understanding between model architects and users are of particular importance in the climate change adaptation space, where many modeled hazards are things of the future without close historical analogs, so that the possibility space for modeling adaptive responses is especially broad. I discuss these challenges and propose a framework for knowledge-brokered, stakeholder-engaged modeling development in the specific context of agent-based modeling of migration under environmental forcing. This framework places particular attention on evaluating model processes jointly by i) uncertainty and ambiguity in model implementation, alongside ii) gaps and differences in understanding of model assumptions among model co-producers and other users. The goal of this framework is to help qualify the appropriate opportunity space for models in guiding decision-making in climate and migration.
Evaluating shared model understanding in the climate-migration space
Category
Virtual Paper Abstract
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