Sub-National Patterns of Conflict-Induced Migration

Keywords: Migration, Conflict, GIS
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Monday
Session Start / End Time: 2/28/2022 08:00 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/28/2022 09:20 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 25

Abstract

Ten years after its beginning, the Syrian civil war has displaced more than 13 out of 21 million Syrians (UNHCR 2020). Of these, 6.7 million people are displaced within the country, and 6.6 million have fled to neighboring countries or sought refuge in other countries across the globe. Meanwhile, in Yemen, of a population of 29 million in 2019, 3,6 million remain internally displaced, with only 71,053 refugees and asylum-seekers registered outside the country, the majority escaping for overseas countries in the Horn of Africa. This raises questions concerning the scope and nature of conflict required to trigger significant civilian displacement and the opportunities necessary for providing access to potential safe-havens. Empirical research has identified a robust link between armed conflict and forced migration imposing humanitarian, economic, demographic, political, and security consequences for both origin and host states. However, existing research has mostly failed to address an urgent question: why do some conflicts generate massive migration flows, while others do not? In this paper, we combine georeferenced data on armed conflict events with novel sub-national data on migration flows and camp establishments to disentangle the heterogeneous impacts of armed conflicts on forced displacement.