Using sea-level rise adaptation modeling and spatial optimization for conservation purchase recommendation in the coastal region

Keywords: Sea Level Rise, Adaptation, Green Infrastructure, SLAMM, Marxan, Spatial Optimization
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Friday
Session Start / End Time: 2/25/2022 08:00 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/25/2022 09:20 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 73

Abstract

For local governments balancing biodiversity conservation, flood control, and commitments to costs associated with them are challenging. We model future vulnerabilities to open spaces driven by sea-level rise and development pressures to aid in conservation purchases. We used Sea Level Rise Affecting Marshes Model to predict future inundation potential under various sea-level rise scenarios. The Marxan spatial optimization software was used to optimize for species diversity, habitat types, and avoided future loss from inundation. The focus group discussions and a survey with stakeholders were used to determine the conservation and resilience target. Different habitat types, elevation, and sea-level rise scenarios were used to predict future inundation potential. While the cost of the land parcel, potential habitat ranges for various high-value species, future inundation and development potential, and ecosystem service values were used to optimize for conservation purchase solution. Our model shows that there will be a significant reduction in developed dry land and undeveloped dryland which will be converted into the intertidal or open estuary in the future. We come up with an output of an ensemble model incorporating various sea-level-rise scenarios, conservation target scenarios, and costs associated with them. This work can be adapted to aid in land conservation in the areas facing sea-level-rise risk and development pressure