When the Students Don’t Get Counted: College Town 2020 Census

Keywords: 2020 Census, College Town Undercount, Census Undercount
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 02:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 03:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 3

Abstract

The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic placed an extraordinary burden on the United States Census Bureau in the midst of the 2020 Census collection period. The stay-at-home orders in response to the pandemic saw in an instant once booming town and gown counties become desolate as many colleges/universities transitioned to remote learning. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 Census for all town and gown counties in the United States. Data was compiled from various secondary sources such as the Post-Secondary Education Data System, United States Department of Agricultural Rural Classification, United States Census Bureau Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties in the United States, and the 2020 Census County Population. We used trend extrapolation (Linear) and the slope from the 2000/2010 Census and American Community Survey to determine what the 2020 Population of the counties could have been, given that students remained on campus in Spring 2020. We found 35 counties, containing 39 universities, had a declining population in the 2020 Census. A total of 34 counties, containing 38 universities, had zero or slower than expected population growth. This possible undercount affected counties in 28 states. Access to federal funding based on population totals can impact future infrastructure development (schools, roads, and hospitals) for many communities. The statistical change of classifications at the United States Office of Management and Budget will also be impacted, which determine community’s eligibility for funding with government agencies and non-profits.