Redistricting the Natural State: A Case Study of Arkansas During the 2020 Redistricting Process

Keywords: redistricting, population geography, political geography, urbanization, rural geography, Arkansas, US South
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 02:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 03:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 3

Abstract

The US state of Arkansas provides an excellent case study to examine the 2020 redistricting process. Arkansas has always ranked as a comparatively rural US state, and it has maintained just four US Congressional Districts for the last half-century. However, Arkansas’ political geographies have the possibility to shift dramatically over the next generation. Intrastate population shifts are occurring, as the longstanding “two states of Arkansas” model (a growing north and west Arkansas vs. a declining south and east Arkansas) broke down during the 2010s, resulting in a more conventional US state pattern of urban growth and rural decline. Similarly, demographic changes are occurring, witnessed by a rapidly growing Hispanic population in western Arkansas. Likewise, as the only US Southern state without a “majority-minority” US Congressional District, Arkansas has experienced particular patterns of political representation in its history. Two main questions are addressed in this virtual paper presentation: first, how did the 2020 redistricting process “work”? Second, given the evidence of shifting human geographies in Arkansas, what challenges will be faced during future redistricting processes? Combining an overview of the 2020 process with election data, 2020 Census data, demographic studies, GIS population data, and economic projections, Arkansas’ redistricting process (present and future) is analyzed. This evidence suggests that any further planning for Arkansas redistricting in this half-century requires a fundamental understanding of the rapid population, economic, and intrastate geographic shifts occurring in Arkansas.