Comparison of Correction of Migration Population Calculations in Population Estimation

Keywords: Population estimation, Cohort factor method, Real estate transaction price data
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Saturday
Session Start / End Time: 2/26/2022 11:20 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/26/2022 12:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 63

Abstract

Factors that influence the establishment of various policies such as land use change and equitable regional development are future population changes. And death, birth, population movement are major factors in population change. In order to understand the size and structure of the future population, it is necessary to estimate the population, and the analysis is carried out through demographic dynamics and population movement statistics under certain assumptions. In Statistics Korea identifies the future population through demographic and migration statistics and provides data related to the estimation. In population estimation, the cohort-factor method is used to determine the future population under a specific assumption by combining the three factors of death, fertility, and population movement(Smith et al., 2006), and the assumptions are set differently for each factor. However, the existing population estimates provide only the national and provincial population estimates, and the population estimates at the city, county, and gu level are insufficient. So The purpose of this study is to compare and analyze the existing calculation method by selecting the population migration factor among the three factors and correcting the method of calculating the population migration factor by performing the population estimation at the city, county, and gu unit, which is smaller than the existing spatial unit.