Uncertainty of Population Projections and the Stigmatisation of Shrinking Regions

Keywords: Population projections, spatial planning, the Netherlands, Germany, population shrinking
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Saturday
Session Start / End Time: 2/26/2022 11:20 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/26/2022 12:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 63

Abstract

Shrinking of population and demographic ageing are common phenomena in many “peripheral” or “declining” regions in Europe. Regional population “decline” is often part of a vicious cycle of economic downturn and loss of employment, selective out-migration of young and qualified people (accelerating ageing) and disinvestment in housing and infrastructure. Deteriorating living conditions and quality of life in shrinking regions are challenges to policy makers and contribute to the stigmatisation of the affected places. Predictions of future population decline and demographic ageing are shaping such negative perceptions of regions by policy makers, spatial planers, and residents. The presentation draws on examples of population projections for Germany and the Netherlands to illustrate how population projections made by experts and the communication of their results and consequences influence discourses and planning decisions about shrinking regions. A comparison of subsequent projection outcomes focuses especially on the role of uncertainty in regional population projections and its impact on policymaking and spatial planning.