Spatial-Statistical Analysis of U.S. Urban-Rural Tornado Risk

Keywords: Hazards, risk, tornado, urban, rural, disasters
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Friday
Session Start / End Time: 2/25/2022 09:40 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/25/2022 11:00 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 6

Abstract

The existing state of knowledge confirms that tornadoes pose serious risks in the United States and continue to cause significant human and economic losses every year. Understanding the trends in tornado occurrence is necessary to assess tornado risk and improving emergency management throughout the country. Community demographic changes and space-time elements create non-random exposure to tornado hazards. Incorporation of urban-rural variables in disaster risk strategies is crucial when underrated tornado risk assessments in urban or rural areas may result in less protective action measures being taken based on perceived reduction in risk. The demographic shift into urban areas throughout the United States, with increases in population and building density, must then be considered in assessments and analyses of tornado risk. Since Aguirre et al. (1993) found an increase in tornado incidence in metropolitan counties between 1950-1990, few scholars have investigated more recent patterns of urban-rural tornado risk following the reduction of the reporting bias. This study applies statistical and geospatial methods to determine county- and regional-level geographic differences in urban-rural tornadoes between 1990-2019. Multiple urban-rural delineation schemas are applied to assess any changes in tornado occurrence using alternative spatial definitions. Bivariate Moran's I, correlation analysis, the difference of means, and analysis of variance testing reveal key differences in tornado occurrence amongst U.S. urban-rural spaces that are important to future weather risk reduction strategies.