Examining Spatial Patterns in Current and Future Land Suitability for Growing Rainfed Corn in Georgia, USA under Two Climate Change Scenarios

Keywords: Climate change, agriculture, land suitability, soil, RCP4.5, RCP8.5
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 08:00 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 09:20 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 14

Abstract

The crops that can be successfully grown in an area are determined by an interaction of climate, topography and soil factors. Given expected future changes in climate, the zones where certain crops may be successfully grown, especially rainfed crops, are likely to change. This paper involves the development of a land suitability classification for rainfed corn based on 30-year normal climate data (1991-2020), soil survey data and topographic information for every 1 km grid square in Georgia and each county. Layers of information on climate, topography and soils are classified based on their suitability for rainfed corn growth. The suitability classification was validated at the county level using historical county agricultural census data. Corn yield in most years was significantly higher in the most suitable climate classes suggesting that the classification provides a good indication of suitability for corn growth.

Land suitability classes using the same topographic and soil information were developed for 30 year periods (2010-2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100) using future climate projection data. Two emissions scenarios were considered, the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. The former is moderate and assumes that policies will be enacted that cause a stabilization in emissions by 2100 while the latter assumes "business as usual" with no significant policies enacted to stabilize emissions. The spatial distribution and extent of land suitability classes at each time step is analyzed and shift in the areas that are suitable for rainfed corn growth in GA under future climates is examined.