All Hands on Deck: Refining High-Resolution Activity Models for Port Facilities

Keywords: Population Modeling; Quantitative; Ports; High-Resolution
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 02:00 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 03:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 68

Abstract

Ports represent a keystone in the global economic supply chain and rely on numerous personnel to maintain throughput of cargo, fuel, and passengers. Unfortunately, ports are vulnerable to environmental and man-made disasters, as seen in the explosion that rocked Beirut in 2020. Data – such as high-resolution population modeling, like the Population Density Tables at Oak Ridge National Laboratory – have the potential to greatly inform disaster preparedness, response, and recovery efforts. Ports are one of 50+ facility-types on which PDT develops high-resolution population models, reporting population density for daytime, nighttime, and episodic events. While ports often have an expansive workforce, most only report annual tonnage or cargo statistics, making it challenging to quantify number of people present at any one time. Identifying an opportunity to improve protocols, PDT investigated and overhauled previous methodologies in two notable ways. First, as ports are spatially complex, research was conducted to identify areas delimited by specific patterns of use. This led to splitting port models by designated terminals, rather than whole facilities being treated as a singular, cohesive unit. This change allows for the reduction of over/underestimation of resulting densities – being more reflective of real-world behavior. Second, actual port data was used to investigate the relationship between employees and standard port equipment which led to the creation of proxy ratios that connect the two, allowing for estimation of employment where such data are unavailable. This workflow was then assessed using the Port of Beirut, the results of which are presented here.