A socio-spatial model of hospitalizations from exposure and sensitivity to high temperatures

Keywords: Maricopa, Arizona, heat, morbidity, urban heat island
Session Type: Virtual Paper Abstract
Day: Monday
Session Start / End Time: 2/28/2022 05:20 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/28/2022 06:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 77

Abstract

Adverse heat-related health outcomes are a pressing urban public health threat as urban heat islands and climate change create increasingly hotter urban environments. Maricopa County, Arizona contains a large and fast-growing metropolitan area, and is one of the hottest urban areas in the world, regularly experiencing maximum summer air temperatures exceeding 45°C. Within the metropolitan region, excess heat-related mortality and morbidity are exacerbated by the social and built environments of low-income and communities of color (predominantly Hispanic/Latinx and Black neighborhoods). We model the spatially-detailed relationship between heat exposure, population sensitivity to summertime daily maximum air temperatures, and risks of heat-related hospitalizations. We develop a Cumulative Heat Sensitivity Index (CHSI) for neighborhoods in urban areas of Maricopa County and estimate relative risks of heat-related hospitalizations. We find that 30°C is the daily maximum air temperature threshold beyond which heat-related hospitalization risk increases rapidly. Hospitalization risks increase with each 1°C increase in daily maximum air temperature: between 1-44 percent in neighborhoods with low heat sensitivity, 5-52 percent in neighborhoods with medium heat sensitivity, and between 10-60 percent in neighborhoods with the highest heat sensitivity. Historically, urban development and marginalization of communities of color have shaped contemporary extreme heat risks and magnify the burden of heat-related disease attributable to current and future climate-augmented extreme heat events. Our research can help identify areas with high population sensitivity and heat exposure that can be targeted by policies, and our hospitalization risk estimates can be incorporated into quantitative assessments of heat-related morbidity in Maricopa County.