Implications of Temporal Non-Stationarity in REDD Projects

Keywords: REDD, carbon emissions, temporal, land cover change, land change modeling, MapBiomas, VCS, GIS
Session Type: Virtual Guided Poster Abstract
Day: Sunday
Session Start / End Time: 2/27/2022 11:20 AM (Eastern Time (US & Canada)) - 2/27/2022 12:40 PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))
Room: Virtual 41

Abstract

First negotiated in 2005 by the United Nations, the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) program outlines tools and procedures for implementation of environmental protection policies in the developing world. Part of this process requires identification of areas of forest that display high risk for future degradation and deforestation, done by utilizing land change modeling software. The Verified Carbon Standard specifies a validation metric to approve use in REDD carbon emissions modelling, but the temporal stationarity of the reference data has potential to influence this validation metric. Metrics of temporal stationarity describe the mathematical consistency of change through time, where perfect stationarity refers to a perfectly consistent pattern of change from the calibration time interval to the validation time interval. My research measures temporal stationarity and explores its ramifications in the context of REDD projects using data compiled by MapBiomas for South America.